A Novel Analytical Model of Mining Subsidence Considering Time Effect Based on the Probability Integral Theory

Surface subsidence caused by underground coal mining has received wide attention due to its impact on the ecological environment. To obtain first-hand data subsidence, we arranged line measurement stations in area of Weiqiang coalfield and implemented surface movement observation at first working face obtained dynamic curve. The curves reflected initial, active declining stages each point a basic level, were consistent with general rule subsidence. accurately analyze mining, based probability integral method considering actual advancement progress face, new three-dimensional prediction model, namely strip unit was proposed. core assumption this model that longwall is regarded as result superposition many units mining. Considering influence different times periods after time function two-time factors introduced into final formulation derived factor. Based analysis measured coalfield, parameters obtained, deformation are predicted via method. Finally, compared theoretically-predicted one. good match showed method, determined according data, meet requirements geological conditions settings area, agreed well field measurements, demonstrating effectiveness newly-developed model.